ReSAKSS ASIA Publications

RESAKSS ASIA PUBLICATIONS

by IFPRI

Latest Publications

ReSAKSS ASIA working papers

Drivers of the Bangladesh fish economy: Projections of future fish supply and demand
Comstock, Andrew; Dorosh, Paul A.. Washington, DC 2019

Abstract | View

Fish play a major role in the Bangladesh food system. Fish production, processing and marketing are major source of incomes for many households, and fish consumption accounts for a significant share of protein consumption in the Bangladeshi diet. Moreover, fish production and consumption are growting rapidly, with the aquaculture subsector as a major driver of change of both supply and demand. In this paper, we present estimates of demand elasticities for four categories of fish (aquaculture, inland capture, mixed production, and marine) using a modified Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. These demand estimates are then used in projections of future supply and demand for these different types of fish under different productivity growth assumptions. Our results show that, at current rates of productivity increase, growth in fish production will outpace increases in demand from population and income growth, resulting a decline in real prices over time. A more rapid increase in productivity would lead to even larger supply increases and corresponding price declines. These effects are most keenly felt by the poorest households who see significant increases in fish consumption. Fish production from aquaculture is likely to have higher rates of productivity growth than the more extensive inland capture and marine systems, leading to a long term shift increase in the share of aquaculture production and consumption.
The role of agriculture in the structural transformation of Indonesia
Morley, Samuel; Kennedy, Adam; Pradesha, Angga; Hadiwidjaja, Gracia. Washington, DC 2019

Abstract | View

Indonesia has managed to combine high rates of growth, rapid reductions in rural poverty and a significant structural transformation of its economy all at the same time without a big increase in urban manufacturing. Agriculture was a critical part of this transformation through two important channels. First, export-oriented agriculture, particularly palm oil and rubber contributed to rising foreign exchange receipts and helped make compatible rapid growth without balance of payments pressure on the macro economy. Second, through the release of workers from low productivity agriculture to more productive nonagricultural activities, structural change contributed between 25 and 50 percent of the rise in national labor productivity depending on the period. The government also played an important role in agricultural development and productivity growth. Public investments in irrigation in combination with subsidies for fertilizer and improved seeds increased agricultural productivity generating an adequate supply of food for domestic needs with less labor.
Evolution of agricultural mechanization in Vietnam: Insights from a literature review and multiple rounds of a farm household survey
Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Liu, Yanyan; Nguyen, Cuong Van; Masias, Ian. Washington, DC 2019

Abstract | View

Vietnam has experienced rapid growth in agricultural mechani-zation lately; particularly in the use of tractors and combine-harvesters. A recent IFPRI study documented the evolution of the growth of mechanization in Vietnam based on an extensive review of the existing literature and several rounds of a nationally repre-sentative household survey. The level of tractor use in Vietnam was relatively high in the 1970s and the early 1980s but declined through the late-1980s before it started taking off again in the 1990s. The relatively high level of tractor uses up to the early-1980s were partly due to political and military reasons, as both the West and the Soviet Union gave substantial support in providing heavy machinery, including tractors. In this note, we focus on the evolution of mechanization from 1990s to 2000s.
Assessing agricultural trade comparative advantage of Myanmar and its main competitors: Findings from UN Comtrade
Zhang, Huaqi; Chen, Kevin. Washington, DC 2019

Abstract | View

This paper aims to provide a better understanding of Myanmar’s agricultural export performance against its competitors in different regions and determine the policy actions for improving Myanmar’s export performance. The normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) index is computed to compare the agricultural competitiveness between Myanmar and its competitors from 2007 to 2016. The results show that: 1) Myanmar’s agricultural export sector enjoys comparative advantage in the global market, but it is not competitive when compared with its major competitors; 2) Myanmar reveals a high level of NRCAs in black gram & pigeon peas, natural rubber, sesame seeds, rice, and frozen fish, while it has low NRCAs in crustaceans and dried fruits; and reveals no comparative advantage in bananas, fish fillets, maize, nuts, and watermelon in certain years. Three major policy implications are drawn, including diversifying Myanmar’s export portfolio, strengthening export promotion and development, and attracting foreign direct investment to upgrade the cross-border value chain.
Production shocks, exports and market prices: An analysis of the rice sector in Myanmar
Dorosh, Paul; Win, Myat Thida; Van Asselt, Joanna. Washington, DC 2019

Abstract | View

Since 2012/13, rice exports to China (which may have reached two million tons in 2015/16) boosted total demand for Myanmar’s rice and rice prices. In mid-2016, however, China stopped rice imports through the main land entry point, putting substantial downward pressure on prices. Analysis presented in this paper, based on econometric estimates of consumption parameters and a simple model of Myanmar’s rice supply and demand, suggests that market prices would fall by 26 to 43 percent or more (in real terms) in the absence of increased exports to the world market and/or government domestic procurement. Such a decline in prices could have seriously harmed Myanmar’s rice producers, including many poor farmers with marketable surpluses. Model simulations suggest that government procurement of about one million tons would limit the estimated price decline to only 17 to 30 percent. Further refinements in the simulations are needed to take account for the seasonal nature of paddy production in Myanmar, possible price-responsiveness of export demand and the effects of changes in paddy incomes on farmer demand for rice. Medium-term analysis of procurement, storage and future sales is needed to analyze fiscal costs under various scenarios, as well, covering alternative shocks to production, export demand and world prices. Nonetheless, the main results are clear: without substantial market interventions on the order of one million tons (milled rice equivalent), the paddy (rice) price could fall dramatically when production increases or export demand declines.

More ReSAKSS ASIA working papers

Back to top

ReSAKSS Asia Policy Notes

Evolution of agricultural mechanization in Vietnam: Insights from a literature review and multiple rounds of a farm household survey
Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Liu, Yanyan; Nguyen, Cuong Van; Masias, Ian. Washington, DC 2019

Abstract | View

Vietnam has experienced rapid growth in agricultural mechani-zation lately; particularly in the use of tractors and combine-harvesters. A recent IFPRI study documented the evolution of the growth of mechanization in Vietnam based on an extensive review of the existing literature and several rounds of a nationally repre-sentative household survey. The level of tractor use in Vietnam was relatively high in the 1970s and the early 1980s but declined through the late-1980s before it started taking off again in the 1990s. The relatively high level of tractor uses up to the early-1980s were partly due to political and military reasons, as both the West and the Soviet Union gave substantial support in providing heavy machinery, including tractors. In this note, we focus on the evolution of mechanization from 1990s to 2000s.
Nepal’s 2072 Federal Constitution: What are the implications for governance of the agricultural sector?
Kyle, Jordan; Resnick, Danielle. Washington, DC 2018

Abstract | View

In September 2015, Nepal’s Constituent Assembly passed a new constitution aimed at transforming Nepal from a unitary country into a federal republic with three levels of government: the federation, the province, and the local level. This institutional shift will have wide-ranging social, political, and economic implications for the country. However, this brief focuses specifically on the implications of these federal reforms for the agricultural sector and the Ministry of Agriculture (MoAD). Agriculture is the backbone of the Nepali economy, providing a livelihood for approximately two-thirds of the population, contributing one-third of the country’s GDP, and constituting over half of its exports. With greater authority and autonomy granted to more subnational units of government, ensuring that the agricul-tural sector is guided by coordinated planning, retains sufficient human capacity, and receives adequate fiscal resources will be of para-mount importance during the transition to a federal republic. Consequently, this brief addresses how the sector can be restructured to meet the constitutional provisions while simultaneously ensuring that MoAD delivers on its agricultural objectives, especially those out-lined in its Agricultural Development Strategy (ADS).
Rural incomes in the context of structural and agricultural transformation
Kennedy, Adam. Washington, DC 2018

Abstract | View

The agricultural sector of Asian middle-income countries is changing rapidly in line with an overall structural transformation of the economy brought about by economic growth. Dr. David Dawe of FAO discussed the changes taking place throughout Asia related to this agricultural transformation in his keynote address at the ReSAKSS-Asia event entitled “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. This brief summarizes some of the main points of his presentation while a more detailed discussion can be found in his earlier FAO working paper (Dawe, 2015).
Mechanization policy- Creating an enabling environment for private-sector investment
Kennedy, Adam. Washington, DC 2018

Abstract | View

Mechanization increases the power applied to agricultural operations and is one tool among many for improving farm productivity. It alone cannot drive the transformation of agriculture (Pingali 2007). Farmers will mechanize to lower costs and ensure timeliness of operations, allowing a greater area of land to be cultivated. The demand for mechanization is therefore determined by the stage of agricultural transformation reflecting the use of complementary inputs (improved seeds, fertilizer), the intensity of farming, land hold-ings, and rural labor supply. Countries across developing Asia have mechanized at different rates corresponding to their level of agricul-tural transformation but also strongly influenced by government policies. ReSAKSS-Asia organized a knowledge exchange event entitled “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Fu-ture Opportunities” to discuss, among many topics, insights into how agricultural mechanization has evolved in countries with different agroecological, institutional and political settings, and what common lessons can be learned for those countries at the early stage of mechanization. This brief summarizes some of the key lessons shared by participants.
Agricultural mechanization in the dry zone of Myanmar
Filipski, Mateusz J.; Belton, Ben; Van Asselt, Joanna. Washington, DC 2018

Abstract | View

This brief evaluates the extent of agricultural mechanization in four townships in Myanmar’s Dry Zone. It provides evidence that rapid mechanization is underway. Mechanical land preparation is now common-place, due to thriving machine rental markets, falling equip-ment prices, and better financing options. The mechanization of harvesting and threshing is also occurring but is concentrated in rice. These findings suggest that Dry Zone agriculture is at a technological crossroads.

More ReSAKSS Asia Policy Notes

Back to top