IFPRI CA NEWS AND PUBLICATIONS DIGEST (APRIL 28 – MAY 4, 2015)
News and Analysis
USD exchange rate continues rising in Tajikistan
(Asia Plus, 24 Apr. 2015) Average exchange rate of Somoni, the national currency of Tajikistan, increased from 6.33 to 6.425 Somoni per USD in one week to 24 April 2015. Depreciation of the local currency was higher in Dushanbe - the capital city, and Khujand - the central city of Sughd region in the south. The article reminds that the depreciation of the local currency has been continuing despite government’s effort to change the trend by suspending operation of private exchange offices a week earlier on 17 April 2015. Since then, more than half of 1,581 private exchange offices were closed in the country.
Dollar exchange rate in Kyrgyzstan drops
(24.kg, 28 Apr. 2015) Dollar exchange rate in Kyrgyzstan again dropped below 60 soms per USD, according to the article. Dollar exchange rate began to decline in the middle of the month stopping depreciation of the local currency. The National Bank entered the market to curb excessive appreciation of the local currency for the first time in 2015 and bought about 13.5 million USD.
Increasing Food Security in Eurasia and Beyond through Shared Knowledge and Expertise
(World Bank, 30 Apr. 2015) The World Bank’s feature story tells about the brief history of creation of the Eurasian Center for Food Security (ECFS) at Lomonosov Moscow State University and its collaborative work with various international research organizations, including IFPRI and other CGIAR Centers, to improve food security in four focus countries: Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Snow and rain caused damage to farmers of Sughd region on $ 90 million (in Russian)
(Ozodi.org, 5 May 2015) Unexpected cold weather, which struck in late March and early April of this year, caused a damage worth about 90 million USD, reports officials of Sughd region. According to the Deputy Head of the Agriculture Department of Sughd region Bobojon Domulloev, snow and rain damaged approximately 39 thousand hectares of apricot orchard and vineyards, as well as about 7 thousand hectares of crops.
Reminder: Similar cold weather was experienced in the neighboring Uzbekistan. However, the damage estimation has not been reported. On the contrary, several regions in Kazakhstan are still suffering from the floods caused by sharp rise in temperature particularly from March 23 until 29. (Link 1, Link 2 and Link 3)
Uzbekistan to create national center to support healthy nutrition in Uzbekistan
(UzDaily, 4 May 2015) The Government of Uzbekistan issued a resolution “On further improving realized measures in sphere of healthy nutrition of population of Uzbekistan” on 25 April 2015, setting main directions on ensuring healthy nutrition for the population of Uzbekistan. The resolution also created the Republican Commission, which will be led by the Ministry of Healthcare of Uzbekistan and will oversee organization and control over the implementation of complex measures in the sphere of healthy nutrition in the country. The document also states about the establishment of national center for nutrition/dietetics, which will function under the Tashkent Medical Academy.
Publications
Agricultural Transition in Post-Soviet Europe and Central Asia after 25 Years
(A. Kimhi and Z. Lerman (eds.) 2015. Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies Volume 79. Halle (Saale): Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO))
Description: This volume includes a collection of papers presented at the International Workshop in honor of Professor Zvi Lerman. The papers are organized in four parts. The first part deals with the transition process in general, with a focus on agricultural transition in the realms of land markets, product markets and labor markets. The chapters in the second part of the volume provide perspectives on the transition experience of specific countries. The third part of the volume deals with trade policy. The final part of the volume deals with structural transformation in agriculture, in particular the decollectivization process, through two case studies.
Asian Development Bank Fact Sheets
(ADB. 2015.)
Description: Asian Development Bank (ADB) published its recent Country Fact Sheets for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. ADB Fact Sheets are published annually and provide concise information on the Bank's member economies, its operations, and contact information. It also provides a summary of the most recent and current ADB-assisted programs and ongoing challenges as well as future directions in the member economy.
(M. Aleksandrova, A.K. Gain and C. Giupponi. 2015. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Early online version.)
Abstract: Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. The current vulnerability assessments through traditional fragmented sectoral methods are insufficient to capture the effects on complex agricultural systems. Therefore, the traditional methods need to be replaced by integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to propose a holistic vulnerability assessment method for agricultural systems. By aggregating both agro-ecological and socio-economic information, we develop an agricultural systems vulnerability index (ASVI) which allows for (i) a classification of geographical units according to their vulnerability level, (ii) an identification of key determinants of vulnerability for each unit and (iii) an assessment of adaptation policy scenarios considering their effects on the sustainability of the analysed systems. The proposed method is applied in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan—a representative irrigated agricultural region in the lower Amu Darya river basin. A decision support tool is used to facilitate multi-criteria decision analysis, including the computation of the index and performing sensitivity analysis of the results. The assessment for Khorezm reveals significant spatial differences of vulnerability levels due to a variation of contributing factors, e.g. natural resources, water productivity, rural-urban ratio. It reveals also that feasible land and water management policies could reduce the vulnerability in Khorezm, particularly in the districts with the poorest agro-ecological conditions. Overall, the proposed method could support national and local authorities in the identification of sustainable adaptation policies for the agriculture sector.
Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia
(T. Spoorenberg. 2015. Asian Population Studies. Early online version)
Abstract: After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. This paper investigates the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registration system with estimates from other data sources. The results show that the recent changes to be real and not a result of data artifact. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the three other non-exclusive factors (population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect) that contributed jointly and simultaneously to push up the period fertility rates in the region.
Measuring rural settlement expansion in Uzbekistan using remote sensing to support spatial planning
(C. Conrad, M. Rudloff, I. Abdullaev, M. Thiel. F. Loew and J.P.A. Lamers. 2015. Applied Geography. Vol. 62)
Abstract Highlights: Settlements in rural Uzbekistan are growing also at the expense of agricultural land. Rural settlements in Khorezm region widely expanded according to land conversion rules. Patterns of land conversion point at the demand for integrative spatial planning. High resolution remote sensing can identify densification and expansion of settlements. Shadows were found helpful for mapping rural settlements in arid environments.
Policies and Livestock Systems Driving Brucellosis Re-emergence in Kazakhstan
(W. Beauvais, R. Coker. G. Nurtazina and J. Guitian. 2015. EcoHealth. Early online version.)
Abstract: Brucellosis is a considerable public health and economic burden in many areas of the world including sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and former USSR countries. The collapse of the USSR has been cited as a driver for re-emergence of diseases including brucellosis, and human incidence rates in the former Soviet republics have been estimated as high as 88 per 100,000 per year. The aim of this paper is to examine the historical trends in brucellosis in Kazakhstan and to explore how livestock systems, veterinary services and control policies may have influenced them. In conclusion, a brucellosis epidemic most likely began before the collapse of the USSR and high livestock densities may have played an important role. Changes to the livestock systems in Kazakhstan, as well as other factors, are likely to have an impact on the success of brucellosis policies in the future. Incentives and practicalities of different policies in smallholder settings should be considered. However, the lack of reliable estimates of brucellosis prevalence and difficulties in understanding exactly how policy is being applied in Kazakhstan, which is a vast country with low population density, prevent firm conclusions from being drawn.
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