IFPRI CENTRAL ASIA NEWS WEEKLY DIGEST (MAY 19 – MAY 26, 2015)

IFPRI Central Asia Program Events

Summer School – Econometric Analysis Training Course in Uzbekistan

(1 – 12 June 2015. Tashkent, Uzbekistan) IFPRI in collaboration with Westminster International University in Tashkent (WIUT) and Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IFMR) under the Cabinet of Ministers the Republic of Uzbekistan organizing a “2015 Summer School for Young Economists.” The main objective of the course is to strengthen the capacity of young researchers to conduct empirical research in economics and related fields, and increase their potential to contribute research and analysis to social and economic development policies in Uzbekistan and the Central Asia region as a whole.

News and Analysis

Kyrgyz Republic Gets Loan to Boost Economy Amid Regional Slump

(IMF Survey Magazine, 14 May 2015) The IMF has approved a $92 million loan to the Kyrgyz Republic to back a reform program aimed at bolstering the country’s resilience to the slowdown in Russia and other external factors. This article provides an interview with Edward Gemayel, Kyrgyz mission chief for the IMF, where he discusses the economy’s current challenges and potential for growth as the country prepares to join the Eurasian Economic Union later this month.

International cooperation spurs reforms of rural advisory services in Azerbaijan, Tajikistan

(CGIAR PFU CAC, 17 May 2015)  In recent years agricultural science has steadily advanced in Central Asia and the Caucasus (CAC). Supported by international research centers working as the CGIAR Regional Program for Sustainable Agricultural Development in the region, national research institutes have developed and introduced a large number of improved varieties of crops and technologies, says the article. However, linkages between research and farming are limited and fragmented, and extension and advisory services (EAS) are still nascent. The article also highlights collaborative efforts of CGIAR organizations in the region and their impact on policy developments in Azerbaijan and Tajikistan.

Caucasus, Central Asia Feel Impact of Adverse Shocks

(IMF Survey Magazine, 19 May 2015) Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) is expected to decline by 2 percent this year as a result of lower commodity prices and the economic slowdown in Russia, says the latest regional forecast by IMF staff. “The twin shocks of the economic slowdown in Russia, a key trading partner, and lower oil prices are taking a toll on the region,” Juha Kähkönen, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department told reporters in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

Half of the population of Uzbekistan is overweight (in Russian)

(Gazeta.uz, 20 May 2015) More than half of the population in Uzbekistan (50.1%) are obese according to a study focusing on prevalence of risk factors of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which was held for the first time in the country, says the report. Study findings were presented at a national conference organized to launch World Health Day 2015 in Tashkent by the World Health Organization (WHO) in collaboration with several international organizations and the Ministry of Healthcare of Uzbekistan. Study included a survey – STEPS, conducted by the Ministry of Healthcare within the framework of World Bank supported project “Uzbekistan: Health System Improvement Project (Health III).”

Kazakhstan showing leadership on food security in Central Asia

(FAO, 21 May 2015) Eradicating chronic hunger and malnutrition worldwide will require the collaboration of both developed and emerging economies, and Kazakhstan is well positioned for leadership in this area. These were among the points highlighted by FAO Director-General Jose' Graziano da Silva as he addressed the VIII Astana Economic Forum. Kazakhstan is a key grain producer and exporter in the region, significantly contributing to the food security of neighboring countries.

Kyrgyzstan annually "loses" about 200 kilometers of roads due to lack of funds

(24.kg, 25 May 2015) Kyrgyzstan loses about 200 km of (tarmac) road annually, because of insufficient funds, according to Minister of Economy Oleg Pankratov. The Minister highlights that the total length of roads in the Kyrgyz Republic amounts to more than 18 thousand kilometers and loans for reconstruction of roads of international importance make nearly half of the overall foreign loans. The Minister also proposed to introduce fees for certain transports and transport services in order to cover some of the cost.

Volume of remittances to Kyrgyzstan at end of four months of 2015 decreases by 37 percent

(24.kg, 26 May 2015) Kyrgyzstan remittances decreased by 37 percent during four months of 2015, the Chairman of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic Tolkunbek Abdygulov reports. "It should be noted that the volume of money transfers in rubles is 97% of the total gross output of international money transfers. In ruble denomination the remittances even increased. However, in dollar terms there is a decrease in remittances, due to the devaluation of the ruble in 2014,” says Mr. Abdygulov.

FAO to create liaison office in Kazakhstan

(World-Grain.com, 26 May 2015) The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Director-General José Graziano da Silva and Kazakhstan's Minister of Agriculture Assylzhan Mamytbekov signed an agreement on May 23 establishing an FAO Partnership and Liaison Office in the country. FAO's new partnership with Kazakhstan is presumed to facilitate international cooperation efforts, bringing FAO and the government together to support of national development goals and priorities as well as assist other countries in the region.

Over 90,000 rare saiga antelopes dead in Kazakhstan in 10 days

(TengriNews, 26 May 2015) The number of rare saiga antelopes found dead in Kazakhstan over the past two weeks has reached 90,000, according to the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan. The Ministry of Agriculture first discovered 117 dead saigas in the area of Zholaba near Amangeldy District of Kostanay Oblast on May 11. There is a ban on hunting of saiga antelopes until 2020 and there were no signs of poaching in this case. The total population of saiga in Kazakhstan has been rapidly increasing form 137,500 in 2012 to 187,000 in 2013, and to about 256,000 in 2014. Diseases often strike antelopes at this time of year when they are weakened by long winters and breeding, according to experts, but his year's epidemic is unprecedented in its scale.

S. Korea, Uzbekistan discuss biz cooperation

(The Korea Herald, 26 May 2015) South Korea and Uzbekistan held a business forum in Seoul to discuss ways to expand bilateral economic and corporate cooperation. The forum, jointly hosted by the two government and state-run trade promotion agencies, was attended by about 200 businesspeople and high-ranking government officials of the two countries, including Deputy Prime Minister Choi Kyung-hwan and his Uzbek counterpart, Rustam Azimov. Delivering a speech at the gathering, Choi said that Uzbekistan has become South Korea's No. 1 trading partner in Central Asia. The gathering was held ahead of Uzbek President Islam Karimov's visit to Seoul scheduled for this week.

Publications

Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East and Central Asia

(IMF. 2015. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF))

Summary for the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) Regional Outlook: “Economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) will continue to decelerate in 2015 mainly as a consequence of lower commodity prices and spillovers from Russia’s slowdown. Where fiscal space and available financing allow, temporary fiscal easing would help economies respond to weakening demand and declining remittances. Over the medium term, fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild depleted buffers and adjust spending plans to the new regional and global economic context. In light of the depreciation of the ruble and the appreciation of the dollar, greater exchange rate flexibility would ease pressure on reserves while helping oil exporters adjust to lower oil prices. Monetary policy may need to be tightened to keep inflation expectations anchored in the face of weakening currencies. Over the medium term, deep structural reforms, particularly to improve the business climate and governance, would raise prospects and make economic growth more inclusive and diversified.” A link with statistical appendix is also provided.

Tajikistan Economic Update No. 1, Spring 2015: Slow Growth, Rising Uncertainties

(WB. 2015. Washington, D.C.: World Bank (WB))

Summary Highlights: Economic growth in Tajikistan is projected to slow in 2015, but to gradually recover in the medium term. The projected decline in GDP growth is likely to slow the pace of poverty reduction. The country faces a range of external and domestic risks, including a slowdown in remittances and trading, low-prices for the main export commodities, and depreciation of the national currency - somoni.

Kazakhstan Economic Update No. 1, Spring 2015: Low Oil Prices--An Opportunity to Reform

(WB. 2015. Washington, D.C.: World Bank (WB))

Summary: Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed in 2014 because of weak demand and the fall in oil prices. Government policies were directed to mitigating the impact of lower oil prices on growth. So far labor market and poverty reduction outcomes do not seem to have been affected by the downturn, thanks to continued job creation, inter-sectoral and geographic mobility, and new employer social arrangements. The same factors that slowed growth in 2014 are also clouding the outlook for the medium term. Trade and transport services will be affected by a knock-on effect from lower mining and industrial exports. However, GDP growth is projected to recover gradually along with oil prices. Continuing the current policy mix of modest fiscal expansion and tight monetary policy will not boost the economy; for the medium term a more neutral monetary policy stance and a more flexible exchange rate regime will more sustainably support growth.

Irrigation Systems in Samarkand

(S. Mantellini. 2015. Encyclopaedia of the History of Science, Technology, and Medicine in Non-Western Cultures.)

Abstract: Dealing with the irrigation systems in the Samarkand oasis with a historical perspective means discussing both the canals watering the territory and the city supply. Commonly considered as the major center in the trade network along the Silk Road, since ancient times, the wealth of Maracanda (Samarkand in Greek sources) is based on a mixed economy, combining the irrigated agriculture in the floodplain with breeding and herding in the uncultivated steppe. However, like many other areas of Central Asia with low rainfall (ca. 350–400 mm/year) and arid environmental conditions, Samarkand and its territory could develop because of a complex irrigation network. The water of the Zeravshan, which is the third longest river of Central Asia, gives rise to the whole system. Springs and wells are less important and usually connected to the water supply in rural mountain areas.