IFPRI CENTRAL ASIA NEWS WEEKLY DIGEST (JUNE 16 – JUNE 22, 2015)
News and Analysis
The 13 fastest-growing economies in the world
(World Economic Forum, 16 June 2015) Uzbekistan is listed amongst 13 countries with the highest projected compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2014 through 2017 based on the forecasts from the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects. Central Asian country is listed as 5th fastest growing economy in the world with projected GDP growth of 7.6%, 7.8% and 8% in 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively.
ADB Grant Supports Fresh Reforms to Grow Private Sector
(ADB, 17 June 2015) The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is providing the Kyrgyz Republic a $20 million grant to support a new round of reforms aimed at expanding the private sector’s role as a driver of sustainable economic growth, suggests the bank’s news release. Building on the First Investment Climate Improvement Program from 2008 to 2014, the second phase of the program is targeted towards systematically addressing a number of policy and institutional constraints that hamper private sector development in the country, according to Priyanka Sood, ADB Financial Sector Specialist.
Central Bank of Russia: Cross-border money transfers drop 44% in 1Q, down 36% year-on-year
(Banki.ru, 17 June 2015) The amount of cross-border money transfers via major money transfer systems totaled 3.11 billion USD in January — March 2015, or 44% less than in the previous quarter (5.54 billion USD) and a 36% slide against January — March 2014 (4.88 billion USD), according to the Central Bank of Russia latest data. The leadership in terms of turnover is still held by Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, while a quarterly contraction in money transfers with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan turned out to be larger than the market average, the report suggests.
US$ 11 million GEF grant to address land degradation, climate change
(FAO RECA, 19 June 2015) An ambitious five-year project on integrated natural resources management in drought-prone and salt-affected areas is on its way to take-off, thanks to US$ 11 million in financing from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), reports FAO Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia (FAO RECA). The project, also known as the second phase of the Central Asian Countries Initiative for Land Management (CACILM-2), will assist Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey and Turkmenistan in tackling challenges related to desertification, land degradation and drought, climate change, and biodiversity.
Kazakhstan hails completion of 'historic' WTO accession talks
(AFP, 22 June 2015) Kazakhstan's president on Monday hailed the "new horizons" opening up to his country after the former Soviet state completed nearly two decades of talks on joining the World Trade Organisation, reports AFP. President Nursultan Nazarbayev also suggested that his government would continue supporting agriculture even after the country formally becomes the WTO's 162nd member in December.
Publications
How would the Rogun Dam affect water and energy scarcity in Central Asia?
(M. Bekchanov, C. Ringler, A. Bhaduri and M. Jeuland. 2015. Water International.)
Abstract: The construction of the Rogun Dam in the Amu Darya Basin to increase upstream energy generation creates potential trade-offs with existing downstream irrigation, due to the different timing of energy and irrigation water demands. The present analysis, based on a hydro-economic optimization model, shows that cooperative basin-wide maximization of benefits would lead to large increases in upstream hydropower production and only minor changes in downstream irrigation benefits. However, if upstream stations, including Rogun, are managed unilaterally to maximize energy production, hydropower benefits might more than double while irrigation benefits greatly decrease, thereby substantially reducing overall basin benefits.
Golden Aging: Prospects for Healthy, Active, and Prosperous Aging in Europe and Central Asia
(M. Bussolo, J. Koettl, E. Sinnott. 2015. Washington, D.C.: World Bank)
Abstract: Compared to other regions, Europe and Central Asia are by far the oldest. Moreover, population aging is set to accelerate further over the coming decades as large segments turn old. Additionally, some countries such as Russia and certain Eastern European countries are facing a shrinkage of their population. Against this backdrop, this report investigates what stands in the way of societies reaping the full benefits of increased longevity—that is, longer lives and potentially prolonged payoffs from human capital—and what can help to mitigate the possible negative impacts of a smaller and older workforce. Beginning with a focus on demographic trends, the report puts the rapid decline in fertility and contrasting migration trends in the region in a historical perspective and looks forward to the varying paths that population change may follow in the region. Next, it examines the evidence on the likely impact of demographic change on growth and savings, the labor force, firm and economy-wide innovation, poverty and inequality, and intergenerational solidarity. Finally, the report goes beyond diagnostics and puts an emphasis on what we know regarding successful policy interventions, presenting evidence on what has and has not worked in the past.
(K. Tussupova, R. Berndtsson, T. Bramryd and R. Beisenova. 2015. Water. Vol. 7(6).)
Abstract: Safe water supply is one of the important Millennium Goals. For development of market water supply services, the willingness of consumers to pay is essential. The consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for piped water supply using the contingent valuation (CV) method with different starting point bids was investigated for the Pavlodar Region, Kazakhstan. The results showed that households with access to groundwater (well or borehole water users) perceived this as of good quality. Consumers without access to groundwater used open-source, standpipe or delivered water for which they had to travel and spend time or to pay. Open source water and standpipe water quality was perceived as bad or satisfactory. More than 90% of the consumers were willing to pay for better water quality and regular water supply. The mean WTP was estimated to be about 1120 in bids and about 1590 KZT per household per month in open-ended question format (150 KZT is ~1 USD as of January 2012). The results can be used to better identify the proper technological choice and the level of service to be provided making rural water projects both sustainable and replicable at a larger scale.
Investments in Agriculture in Northern Tajikistan: Considering the Dehqon Farm
(A. Mandler. 2015. In A. Shtaltovna, A-K Hornidge and C. Schetter (eds). Bonn: Peter Lang)
Summary: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the national independence of the Republic of
Tajikistan, individual agricultural production widely replaced collective farming. Local farming households predominantly continue to produce for self-consumption and remain reluctant to change the legal status of their farm in order to fully engage in market-oriented farming for a number of reasons. The author’s argument based on the example of the Zarafshan Valley is that the reluctance of farmers to increase agricultural production and to invest in their farms is caused by the lack of convincing economic and social incentives, further complicated by the involvement of representatives of the state in rural affairs.
(FAO. 2015. Rome: FAO Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia.)
Abstract: As a region, Europe and Central Asia has achieved the Millennium Development Goal hunger target of reducing by half the proportion of people affected by hunger. Progress on reducing the incidence of hunger differs from country to country, with the Central Asian countries having the most difficulty. Despite positive trends in food security, child malnutrition continues to be a problem in the region – in both rich and poor countries. This can be seen in relatively high rates of stunting in the Caucasus and Central Asian countries, and alarming levels of anaemia in children under 5 in several countries. Overweight and obesity are an increasing nutrition, health and budgetary issue in the region. Child overweight rates are double those for the developing world. Countries across the region differ in their strategies for ensuring food security.
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