IFPRI CENTRAL ASIA NEWS WEEKLY DIGEST (JULY 28 – AUGUST 3, 2015)
News and Analysis
In Tajikistan: Making Health Care Work
(WB, 27 Jul 2015) Women and children in Tajikistan face higher rates of malnutrition than women and children in other Central Asian countries and the South Caucasus. Acute infection is the leading cause of death for newborns and preventable illnesses play a part in a considerable proportion of all child deaths. Overall, the numbers are grim, especially on maternal and child health, suggests World Bank (WB), reporting about its joint Health Services Improvement Project in Tajikistan.
Kazakhstan, UN Sign Partnership Framework for Development
(The Astana Times, 28 Jul 2015) On July 22, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Yerzhan Ashikbayev and UN Resident Coordinator in the country Stephen Tull signed a Partnership Framework for Development for 2016-2020 (PFD), reported the press service of the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The document was also signed by representatives of 21 UN entities and has three pillars of action: reducing disparities and improving human development, creating innovative public institutions and strengthening international and regional cooperation. Within this framework, Kazakhstan and the United Nations Development Programme have worked together on preparations for a launch of Kazakhstan’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) program, under the provisional brand KazAID, informs the article.
(WFP, 28 Jul 2015) The Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) Ertharin Cousin arrived on 27 July in Dushanbe for a four-day visit to take part in the World Humanitarian Summit (WHS) Regional Consultation for South and Central Asia, 28-30 July, and to visit WFP operations in Tajikistan. The WFP Executive Director’s travel-plan also includes meeting leading government officials, members of the donor community and WFP partners.
World Bank Group Helps Boost Kyrgyz Dairy Sector
(WB, 28 Jul 2015) The World Bank Group (WB), working with the Kyrgyz Government and other partners, has launched an initiative to help develop Kyrgyzstan’s dairy sector by addressing key challenges to boosting agricultural production and encouraging local economic development with a pilot project in Issyk Kul province, according to the bank’s press release. The objective of the pilot Dairy Sector Development Program is to boost the quantity and quality of raw milk at the farm level resulting in an increase of its exports to neighboring countries. The ultimate goal of the program is to make Kyrgyz dairy products both internationally recognized and the country’s leading export item.
Mudslides Make a Mess in Central Asia
(The Diplomat, 30 Jul 2015) In recent weeks both Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have been subjected to damaging floods and mudslides–thought not because of rain. Instead, unusually high temperatures have led to increased glacial melt in Central Asia’s mountains, reports the article reflecting upon the floods and mudslides in Almaty in Kazakhstan and the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) in Tajikistan.
Glaciers may be gone in 65 years, Kazakhstan may face water shortages: Dr Severskiy
(TengriNews, 31 Jul 2015) Dzhungar Alatau glaciers can disappear by 2080 and Kazakhstan might experience water shortages, according to Dr. Igor Severskiy, a member of the Academy of Sciences of Kazakhstan and who has been studying Central Asian glaciers for several decades. The scientist suggests that with current trend the glacier systems feeding rivers in Kazakhstan will disappear by 2080-2085 and the glaciers feeding the Ob River, Eastern Pamir glaciers and Western Pamir glaciers will be gone in the second half of the third millennia.
Kazakh petroleum will only be available for EAEC (in Russian)
(KTK, 31 Jul 2015) Kazakhstan introduced six-month ban on petroleum export outside of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, effective of July 30, 2015. The reason for the ban is explained by the concerns related to the possibility of fuel shortages and price hikes partly due to upcoming harvesting season. Fuel supplies are subsidized for farmers in Kazakhstan.
Cheaper Oil And Sanctions Weigh On Russia’s Growth Outlook
(IMF Survey Magazine, 3 Aug 2015) Russia’s economy is expected to contract by 3.4 percent in 2015, although growth should return in 2016. Medium-term growth prospects are modest due to slow progress in implementing structural reforms, according to the IMF’s latest economic health check. Trade, remittances, and FDI are the main channels of economic spillovers from Russia to neighboring countries, particularly the CIS, the report suggests. The remittances channel is particularly prominent for CIS oil importers, which are among the most remittance-dependent economies in the world and include Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Russia, FAO to assist Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan with food security and nutrition
(FAO RECA, 3 Aug 2015) A voluntary contribution of US$ 6 million from the Russian Federation will enable FAO to provide technical assistance to the governments of Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the area of food security, nutrition and sustainable agricultural development, informs the FAO Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia (FAO RECA). “FAO Technical assistance to be financed by this generous contribution from the Russian Federation will support the national development priorities of all three countries,” said Vladimir Rakhmanin, FAO Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Europe and Central Asia. “In each case, the FAO Country Programming Framework will serve as a key point of reference.”
Publication
Aid for Trade in Asia and the Pacific: Thinking Forward About Trade Costs and the Digital Economy
(ADB. 2015. Manilla: Asian Development Bank (ADB).)
Description: Highlighted in this report are some of the emerging trends since the last regional review of Aid for Trade (AfT). Trade flows have increased each year since 2006 in the region. While regional aggregate trade costs continue to fall, particularly for Central Asia and Southeast Asia, many subregions continue to struggle with trade costs. Trends in trade costs in Central, East, South, and Southeast Asia are analyzed in chapter three.
Subjective Well-Being Across the Lifespan in Europe and Central Asia
(J.M Bauer et.al. 2015. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7378.)
Abstract: This paper uses data from the Integrated Values Survey, the Life in Transition Survey, and the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to analyze the relation between age and subjective well-being in the Europe and Central Asia region. Although the results generally confirm the findings of previous studies of a U-shaped relation between subjective well-being and age for most of the lifecycle, the paper also finds that well-being declines again after people reach their 60s and 70s, giving rise to an S-shaped relation across the entire lifespan. This pattern generally remains robust for most of the cross-sectional and panel analyses. Hence, despite significant heterogeneity in the pattern of well-being across the lifespan in the Europe and Central Asia region, the paper does not observe high levels of cross-country or cross-cohort variation.
(S. Christmann and A. A. Aw-Hassan. 2015. Climate Change.)
Abstract: The rapid loss of small glaciers worldwide might result in mountain villages changing from having plenty of water during the growing season, to facing a scarcity even in scenarios with adaptation. Climate-change effects might cause the need for significant changes in rural mountain economies that currently rely on irrigated agriculture, pastoralism and labor migration. Previous research mainly focuses on geophysical aspects and little is known about the local ability to understand climate-change indicators or local collective adaptive capacity. A 2010 participatory case study in the Zerafshan Range, Tajikistan, disclosed a local lack of awareness of climate change and its consequences. We present a social learning method based on scenarios and visualization. The process exposed a remarkable potential for comprehensive adaptation, including in water harvesting, choice of crops and livestock, environmental enhancement, skills and conflict management. We recommend the approach as a model to promote local collective adaptive capacity development. The case study revealed high risks of massive out-migration from mountain villages if adaptation starts too late: countries with a high proportion of mountain agriculture might see significant losses of agricultural area, a reduction in food production and an increase in conflicts in areas where immigration occurs.
(Ch. Xiong, D. Yang, J. Huo and Y. Zhao. 2015. Journal of Arid Land. Vol. 7(5).)
Abstract Excerpts: The study applied an approximate relationship analysis, a decoupling relationship analysis, and a trend analysis to explore the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth using data from Kazakhstan for the period of 1993–2010. The results demonstrated: (1) the total energy consumption and GDP in Kazakhstan showed a “U”-type curve from 1993 to 2010… (2) The relationships between energy consumption and carbon emissions, economic growth and energy exports were linked… (3) It is forecasted that Kazakhstan cannot achieve its goal of energy consumption by 2020…
Leave a Reply