IFPRI CENTRAL ASIA NEWS WEEKLY DIGEST (AUGUST 4 – AUGUST 17, 2015)

EBRD approves new strategy for Tajikistan

(EBRD, 5 Aug 2015) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has approved a new country strategy which will guide its work in Tajikistan in the next four years. The Bank’s main priorities in the country will be enabling economic growth by supporting expansion of private enterprise; improving public utility services through commercialization and corporatization; and, fostering regional connectivity and economic integration. Across all its activities, the EBRD will promote climate resilience and gender equality. The EBRD increased investments in Tajikistan in 2014 to a record US$ 75 million. The Bank expects to invest about US$ 200 million in 2015 thanks to some high-profile projects of regional importance, including the modernization of Tajikistan’s electricity transmission infrastructure.

Nazarbayev signs Kazakhstan pension legislation amendments

(TengriNews, 6 Aug 2015) President of Kazakhstan has signed amendments to the pension legislation, which introduces compulsory 5% pension contribution by an employer starting from 2017. The new legislation promises to bring higher pensions for future retirees. However, the pension reform raises some questions and suggestions that the burden will be shifted to employees.

EBRD helps bring Coca-Cola bottling plant to Tajikistan

(EBRD, 7 Aug 2015) The EBRD is providing finance for a new soft drinks bottling plant in Tajikistan with a 44.7 Million EURO investment in order to help reduce imports, increase domestic production and raise standards in the country’s agribusiness sector, according to the bank’s press release.

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with Kazakhstan

(IMF Press Release, 5 Aug 2015) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the Executive Board conclusion on the Article IV consultation with Kazakhstan. According to the IMF, economic growth and inflation have decelerated, financial conditions have tightened, and external imbalances are emerging in Kazakhstan. Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized 2 percent during the first quarter of 2015, down from around 4 percent in 2014 and 6 percent in 2013. Next year, growth is projected to pick up to 3.25 percent, driven by gradual recovery in oil prices and external demand.

Kyrgyzstan is ready to supply carrots, potatoes and cabbage to EAEU countries

(24.kg, 11 Aug 2015) Kyrgyzstan has established two logistics centers in order to support export of vegetables such as carrots, potatoes and cabbages, as well as fruits including apples and apricots in northern Chui region in Kyrgyzstan, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Melioration of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan. The Ministry also assured that only excess food products are going to be exported thus its impact on food availability and price in the country will be limited. 

Kyrgyzstan acceded to the Eurasian Economic Union

(EAEU, 12 Aug 2015) Kyrgyzstan has become a full-fledged member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) along with Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, informs Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC). The EEC also informed that the customs control at the Kyrgyzstan – Kazakhstan border was abolished.

Central Asia Mountain Range Has Lost a Quarter of Ice Mass in 50 Years, Study Says

(WSJ, 17 Aug 2015) The glaciers of Central Asia’s Tien Shan mountain range have lost a quarter of their ice mass over the past five decades, largely because of increased melting linked to a rise in summer temperatures, reports the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) referring to a research article in the journal Nature Geoscience. Both glacial melting and snow are vital sources of water for people living in semiarid parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and China.

Publication

Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years

(D. Farinotti, et.al. 2015. Nature Geoscience.)

Abstract: Populations in Central Asia are heavily dependent on snow and glacier melt for their water supplies. Changes to the glaciers in the main mountain range in this region, the Tien Shan, have been reported over the past decade. However, reconstructions over longer, multi-decadal timescales and the mechanisms underlying these variations—both required for reliable future projections—are not well constrained. Here we use three ensembles of independent approaches based on satellite gravimetry, laser altimetry, and glaciological modelling to estimate the total glacier mass change in the Tien Shan. Results from the three approaches agree well, and allow us to reconstruct a consistent time series of annual mass changes for the past 50 years at the resolution of individual glaciers. We detect marked spatial and temporal variability in mass changes. We estimate the overall decrease in total glacier area and mass from 1961 to 2012 to be 18 ± 6% and 27 ± 15%, respectively. These values correspond to a total area loss of 2,960 ± 1,030 km2, and an average glacier mass-change rate of −5.4 ± 2.8 Gt yr−1. We suggest that the decline is driven primarily by summer melt and, possibly, linked to the combined effects of general climatic warming and circulation variability over the north Atlantic and north Pacific.

Runoff generation in the headwater of Amu Darya, Central Asia

(X. Wang, L. Sun, Y. Zhang and Y. Luo. 2015. Progress in Geography. Vol. 34(3).)

Abstract Excerpts: Amu Darya is the largest river in Central Asia… Runoff of the Amu Darya River is dominated by snowmelt and glacier melt originating from the alpines… This study investigates the glacier and snowmelt processes in the headwaters of Amu Darya by using a glacier-enhanced SWAT model. The simulations were run through 1951 to 2005... Snowmelt and glacier melt contributed 67% and 15% of the annual runoff… Due to the change of temperature and precipitation, snowmelt showed a decreasing trend and the value during 1996 to 2005 (Period II) was 20% lower compared to that in 1951 to 1995 (Period Ⅰ). Due to the shrink of glacier area and reduction of precipitation, glacier melt showed a non-significant decreasing trend between 1951 and 2005 and the annual glacier melt in Period Ⅱ was 4% less than that in Period Ⅰ. Despite that the rainfall had slightly increased, the rain runoff was reduced by 35% because of the increased evapotranspiration. Consequently, the streamflow was reduced by about 260 million m3 each year from 1951 to 2005. The runoff showed a 21% reduction from Period Ⅰ to Period Ⅱ. The study of runoff generation characteristics in the headwaters of the Amu Darya River can provide references for the water resource management in the Amu Darya River Basin and Central Asia.

Conflict over a hydropower plant project between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

(S. Ito, S. El Khatib and M. Nakayama. 2015. International Journal of Water Resources Development. Early online version.)

Abstract: Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries struggled to reach an agreement on the use of their shared fresh water resources. The conflict between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan regarding construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant in the Amu Darya Basin seems deadlocked at present, despite copious efforts made by donor agencies. Therefore, this paper examines each country’s position using the numbers featured in the media.